Oscar Predictions

Okay folks here it is, the blog post you all have been waiting for, my annual Oscar predictions. This post should have gone out last week, but stomach flu, and a slow loading computer update postponed it til today. I used to tackle all the Oscar categories, but due to lack of interest (mostly lack of my interest), I'm limiting it to the big six this year (Picture, lead and supporting Actor/Actress, and Director). My choice will be highlighted in blue. We will of course check in after the Oscars and see how I did.

Best Picture

"The Artist"
"The Descendants"
"Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
"The Help"
"Hugo"
"Midnight in Paris"
"Moneyball"
"The Tree of Life"
"War Horse"

For best Picture I'm bucking the tradition of going with a golden globe winner. I'm also not going with one of the heavily nominated films. I'm picking Spielburg's "War Horse", because Hollywood loves Spielburg, and especially his war movies. Now, if I had to choose what I wanted to win, it would be "Hugo", but I think "War Horse" may be the dark horse to win it.

Actor in a Leading Role

Demián Bichir in "A Better Life"
George Clooney in "The Descendants"
Jean Dujardin in "The Artist"
Gary Oldman in "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
Brad Pitt in "Moneyball"

I have seen none of these performances, but I am giving it to Clooney simply because I feel he is the best actor among the three names I recognize, and also I heard it was an amazing movie.

Actress in a Leading Role

Glenn Close in "Albert Nobbs"
Viola Davis in "The Help"
Rooney Mara in "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
Meryl Streep in "The Iron Lady"
Michelle Williams in "My Week with Marilyn"

A hard category for me. The women are all familiar names, except maybe Viola Davis. I saw only "The Help" and "Dragon Tattoo", but I'm sure all the others were great. Glenn Close might normally get my vote for playing a man; or Rooney Mara for playing a psychologically disturbed individual. But I'm going with Streep playing British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, because America seems so intrigued by British royalty and politics.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Kenneth Branagh in "My Week with Marilyn"
Jonah Hill in "Moneyball"
Nick Nolte in "Warrior"
Christopher Plummer in "Beginners"
Max von Sydow in "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"

I'm picking another dark horse here. Jonah Hill, though I'm sure he was great in the movie is out of his league. And the same could probably be said about Nolte. But as much as I didn't love "Warrior" (sorry Rachel Nichols) I thought Nolte was amazing as the father of two UFC type fighters.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Bérénice Bejo in "The Artist"
Jessica Chastain in "The Help"
Melissa McCarthy in "Bridesmaids"
Janet McTeer in "Albert Nobbs"
Octavia Spencer in "The Help"

First let me say I thin it is ridiculous that Melissa McCarthy is nominated for a vulgar role in a disgusting mindless filthy comedy. That off my chest I think the obvious choice is Octavia Spencer for "The Help" if for nothing else but the pie scene.

Directing

"The Artist" Michel Hazanavicius
"The Descendants" Alexander Payne
"Hugo" Martin Scorsese
"Midnight in Paris" Woody Allen
"The Tree of Life" Terrence Malick

I think despite the great work of the other three it will come down to the two giants, Allen and Scorsese, and in the end they will give it to Scorsese and "Hugo" with 11 nominations, but only 2 in the big 6 categories. Scorsese will take it because "Hugo" won't get best picture.

Okay, see you at the end of February for results.